Doing the mock draft got me going (finally) on a set of rankings. Hope you enjoy.
1. Calvin Johnson: Fitz has always been my favorite, but Calvin is more likely to have better production in the short term, has a higher ceiling and is still super young. He could be the #1 player overall in dynasty (and is for me in most formats).
2. Larry Fitzgerald: Once the perennial #1 on my WR rankings (and overall as well), he was bumped down by Andre Johnson last year and now Calvin this year. He is still very much in his prime and will be for a number of years. Even without a good QB he produces. Improve the QB situation and he could jump back to #1.
3. Andre Johnson: Getting a bit old for my taste. I felt that going into last year when I had him at #1, but his expected production is too great to bump down any further than this.
4. Hakeem Nicks: I will never be able to live down the trade of Nicks straight up for Colston in the FFPC $750 Dynasty. I LOVE this guy and its sad that I only have him in two leagues (for a measly $160 in combined entry fees). Offered Dwayne Bowe (whom I also love) PLUS the 1.5 for him in the $1250 and was rejected.
5. Dez Bryant: I don’t have him in nearly enough leagues (hard to believe only 2), but at least I have him in the most important one, the FFPC $1250 Dynasty (through a mid year trade). Admittedly, I came around just a tad late in getting him up my rankings fast enough to get him in more leagues.
6. Roddy White: Should outproduce in the top 3 for the foreseeable future, but like AJ, his age is getting up there. By next year, he won’t be a player that anyone would break the bank to acquire (unlike Hakeem Nicks and Dez Bryant).
7. Greg Jennings: Although I have him in a good 7 (maybe more) leagues (including a $500 league), I traded him for peanuts in the FFPC $750 for what I thought for sure would be the 1.1 rookie mid year (ended up being the 1.7!!!) and freaking Eddie Royal. I feel violated (as I was with Hakeem Nicks in the same league). LOL, that’s harsh. But no, I really was. Keeps me up at night. Its no wonder that the $750 team is not nearly as strong as the $1250 team.
8. Brandon Marshall: Still like him (maybe no longer LOVE him). He is volatile so he comes with risks no doubt. But I play in all PPR leagues, and this guy is a mega stud in PPR.
9. Dwayne Bowe: I really did not think he would make it back this high in my rankings for a long time after making it in the top 6 at one point, but here he is. He better not let me down again.
10. Desean Jackson: One of my favorites, he is exciting to watch particularly now with Michael Vick at QB. Contrary to what many may think, I believe we have not yet seen his ceiling. He will clear 300 points in PPR at least once before his career is done.
11. Jeremy Maclin: With all the attention Desean gets from defenses, Maclin could really bust out in 2011. He is not yet commanding the trade value of a WR11, but he will, real soon.
12. Vincent Jackson: Lets see where he lands. If in a good situation, his ranking will climb fast. If in a not so good situation, he could drop a good 5 or so spots.
13. Miles Austin: Dez in Dallas will really start affecting how people view Austin in dynasty leagues. WR13 is still great, but just not the top 5-8 he would have been without Dez.
14. Mike Wallace: His performances turned me around as far as my opinion of him goes. I could easily see him in my top 10 at some point in the near future since there is very little difference as it is between him and the 5 or so receivers ahead of him.’
15. AJ Green: Will be the 1.1 in many leagues this year (although I am leaning Mark Ingram myself). Can’t wait to see how he does in the combine and where he ends up getting drafted.
16. Sidney Rice: He showed enough in 2011 after coming back from hip surgery to get me comfortable with this ranking. I anticipate that his talent will be enough to overcome any QB issues going forward.
17. Kenny Britt: Second runner up as comeback fantasy player of the year (behind Vick and Bowe). I was able to draft him in the 7th round in some startups last year due to his off-field blunders, and even that felt risky with this guy! Hopefully, he has turned himself around for good.
18. Santonio Holmes: His ranking also depends heavily on where he lands. If he stays in New York, this is about the right spot for me.
19. Michael Crabtree: Its gotta make you nervous that he hasn’t done more than he has in San Francisco given the state of the other receiving options there outside of Vernon Davis. Unless they bring in a decent QB, it could be a rocky road ahead for Crabtree.
20. Demaryius Thomas: His market value is no where near this ranking, so I probably wouldn’t trade Percy Harvin straight up for him right now (although I might), but in the hypothetical no trade dynasty league (ooh, fun), I would definitely draft Demaryius ahead of him.
21. Julio Jones: His landing spot will be key. Like I said previously, he’s the kind of player I can see myself getting caught up in the hype. Keep that in mind in any future rankings I do if you start seeing Julio in my top 15 before he plays a down in the NFL.
22. Reggie Wayne: Wow, wasn’t he consistently in the top 5 in most dynasty rankings just a couple of years ago? He is a strong reminder that perhaps the rankings of Andre Johnson and Roddy White may be a tad high (as this ranking may still be).
23. Percy Harvin: Very talented but how can you count on him week to week with those migraines?
24. Mike Williams (TB): I am just not a big fan. I’m sure he will be considered top 15 by many though.
25. Wes Welker: Still produced despite being less than a year removed from major knee surgery. He does have risk in age, wear and tear and the slight chance he won’t get re-signed in New England.
26. Steve Smith (NYG): Would obviously be higher but for the major knee surgery. I’d still take a chance on him at a WR26 price.
27. Anquan Boldin: Value could drop off the cliff if he doesn’t turn it around in 2011. I probably would not draft him in a startup high enough to land him and even at WR26 is pretty risky.
28. Marques Colston: Talk about risky, here is risk personified. You have to like the production but knee surgery, again? Warning, Warning.
29. Pierre Garcon: The WR2 in Indy in my estimation, and that’s all you need to know to justify any top 30 ranking. Would be higher if he could maintain some consistency.
30 (tie). Johnny Knox: I expect him to continue to improve. Solid player to acquire at WR30 if you can get him at this price.
30 (tie). Arrelious Benn: Don’t fall asleep on this guy. He’s got a ton of talent. That said, buying him at WR30 prices would probably be overpaying right now since his market value is in the toilet.