A New Year, A New Story
Jan 30, 2015 12:04 AM
In this blog, 2010 and 2011 were about the advent of true high stakes dynasty and my team in the then highest stakes dynasty league in history (the $1250 FFPC Dynasty League #1). In 2012 and 2013 my focus was on the rise of my team in the FFPC $750 Dynasty League #4, the highest scoring team in the FFPC over the last thee years. 2014 was a story of the DWFC and the quest for the best dynasty team ever (which by the way has been derailed for now with the downfall of Josh Gordon).
To kick off 2015, I am going back to my team in the $1250 FFPC Dynasty League #1, which is just now emerging from a rebuild, and its near twin in the $2500 FFPC Dynasty League #2 coming off of a championship. My teams in the FFPC last year were largely on autopilot as I focused on my DFWC teams going for the Dynasty King title. These two FFPC teams in particular got the least attention, but that’s not always a bad thing in Dynasty. In Dynasty, you’ve got to be patient when managing young teams so that your rookies and other young players can develop and so your future picks can grow in value. Sometimes a self-imposed moratorium on trades can be just what a team needs for that to happen. Sometimes I tinker with my teams too much, and I end up missing out on talent that was once on my roster. Of course, you don’t want to leave a team on autopilot too long, and this is a good year for both of these teams to get some TLC.
These two teams naturally go together because they are so similar. Both teams are built around super studs Julio Jones (my #1 ranked dynasty player overall) and Dez Bryant. Both teams now boast a third elite (and ultra young) player in Odell Beckham. Both will be starting Big Ben at QB, and both will be contemplating cutting backup QB, Robert Griffin III. Both have three 1st round picks in 2015, the 1.1, 1.9 and 1.10 in the $1250 and the 1.5, 1.7, 1.12 in the $2500. Both are figuring what to do with Bishop Sankey. Both have a set of potential super star (but not near established) tight ends in a 1.5 PPR TE league (Tyler Eifert, Eric Ebron, Ladarius Green, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins and Coby Fleener in the $1250 and Eric Ebron and Jordan Reed in the $1250).
Neither are among my best dynasty teams, but both are on their way up and, given the stakes involved, both may be the key to what could be a very big year for my teams as a whole. Both are very fun teams to manage and are in very tough leagues and have just enough holes to make it interesting to write about.
Lets start the year off with my team in the $2,500 FFPC Dynasty League #2. Like my team in the $1250, this one was built to be young and pretty, which carries with it a negative connotation on message boards. I’ve read more than a handful of times something to the effect of “some like to build pretty rosters, others prefer to win”. I certainly don’t subscribe to that, but I do understand where they are coming from. Some teams do seem to always play for the future and never win. For this team, I’d like to continue to play for next year, every year. The competition in this particular league is really tough and very youth minded. Switching to win-now mode, even for just a year, could set this team behind in the youth arms race to a point where it could take years to recover. If I can, I’d like to stay ahead in that arms race and let the championships take care of themselves.
Here’s what I have to play with:
QB: Big Ben, RG3. Not much to see here. RG3 is worthless in the trade market and Big Ben is worth more to me on this team than what I could get back in return (a 2nd rounder maybe?). I’d be surprised if RG3 makes the cut in most FFPC Dynasty Leagues this off season, but I’d like to keep him if I can (but I don’t think I can).
RB: Gio Bernard, CJ Anderson, Doug Martin, Bishop Sankey, Justin Forsett. Last year, this team bought Forsett after Week 1 on the free agent waiver wire and then saved and saved until it had the lead in free agent dollars by mid year. It looked like the savings was going to be a waste, but then Week 10 came along and CJ Anderson emerged. Suddenly, this team had a formidable duo of CJ Anderson and Justin Forsett at RB. But that was then. Now, outside of CJ Anderson (maybe), there is not a lot trade value here. Forsett is 29 and a free agent, and Baltimore will likely be looking to bring in a new young RB to take the reigns. I’ll be entertaining offers for Forsett, but I won’t get a first, and that is really all I ever shoot for in trades in the FFPC. I’d like to move Doug Martin, but I’d rather take the chance on him than trade him for cheap. I am keeping Gio because his perceived value is down right now, and his profile (young, quick, pass catching RB) fits this team well. Sankey is on the block for a 1st rounder, but we’ll see if that pans out. Despite my goal to make this team pretty, and as pretty as RB was last year with Gio at or near the top of the fantasy world (and Doug Martin not being bad himself), the perceived market value of this group of RBs this year is not good, and that will pose a challenge for the future growth of this team. Clearly, I would have liked to have moved Doug Martin last year before his value went in the toilet, but no one in this league wanted him. Since I can’t really trade them, I might as well enjoy the deep stable of productive backs in 2015 while I wait for the opportunity to move one or two.
WR: Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Odell Beckham, Deandre Hopkins, Jeremy Maclin, Marques Colston, Cecil Shorts. Like most of my teams, WR is this team’s strength. Unlike some of my better teams, this team only has 3 elite WRs, so getting the fourth and hopefully fifth will be priority number one over the next few years. You can never have too many stud WRs. Colston and Shorts are on the bubble and could be cut.
TE Eric Ebron, Jordan Reed: Jordan Reed was a huge downer at the end of the year. Its difficult to tell if it was mostly Reed or the QB situation in Washington (probably the latter), but there is no questioning that he is injury prone and carries significant risk. Then again, he’s young and talented, and pretty teams should be made of young, talented, high risk types like Reed. So he stays. Eric Ebron has not even begun to scratch the surface of his NFL career, so he’s a player worth holding to see if he develops into a star. In a 1.5 PPR TE league, Ebron could be gold.
Draft Picks: 1.5, 1.7, 1.12. I’d like to trade one of these picks for a future 1st and draft the other two for potential. The 1.5 in particular has a good chance of netting this team a young superstar.
Now for the $1250 team.
QB: Same as above. RG3 doesn’t look like he’s going to make the team.
RB: This was a pool of death in 2014. With a decent set of RB, this team might have won the league (like the $2500 team). By the time Latavius Murray and Jonathan Stewart became relevant, it was too late, but they did carry the team to the consolation bracket title and the 1.1 with it (with a week 14-16 total that would have won it all if the team were in the playoffs). In 2015, this team will have Murray and Stewart along with Bishop Sankey (and quite possibly Melvin Gordon). I’d like to trade Sankey here as well if I can get a future 1st.
WR: The WR core here is even better than the $2500. Julio Jones, Dez Bryant and Odell Beckham are the rock stars, but Sammy Watkins is as close to one as they come. Michael Floyd is a nice piece to have for additional potential. Jeremy Maclin could be trade bait for a future 1st. Tavon Austin could be a cut down casualty.
TE: I don’t normally like to keep so many TEs, I don’t even like TEs in general, but in a 1.5 PPR TE league, you can’t live without them. So for this team, I’ve stocked TE full of potential (matched only by their lack of actual production). Tyler Eifert has been the poster boy for potential without production in his first two years. Eric Ebron may be following in his footsteps. Ladarius Green, more of the same. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins may end up being the best of them all. Coby Fleener was the most productive of the group, but he may be the one that gets cut if I cant make some more roster room.
Draft Picks: 1.1, 1.9, 1.11. Similar team, same story. I’d like to trade one of these picks for a future 1st and make the other two picks.
So far, I haven’t yet made any moves for either team and am taking a slow deliberate approach, but things are likely to pick up soon, particularly as we get closer to the cut down date of February 28 when we are forced to cut down to 16 players.