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$1250 FFPC Dynasty - The Moment of Truth



Wow, I haven't posted an update since Week 7. Well, to fast forward, I made some fairly horrendous trades (Chris Johnson for Miles Austin for one just before CJ3 went bananas and Austin injured), knocked myself out of the bye as a result and nearly out of the playoffs altogether, and was half a point away from getting knocked out of the wildcard round. Still, by some miracle, I am in the final week of the championship round (a two-week four-team points battle) and am very much in contention for the top prize.

The standings are as follows going into the final week:

Cavalier King Charles: 183.55
Murphy's Law: 175.65
Invictus: 107.90
Mount Vernon: 88.30

I am looking at a few bad matchups in Week 16 and some very tough lineup choices. We can start QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, FLX, FLX. Remember, TEs get 1.5 PPR, so starting both Vernon and Finley is tempting (although possibly foolish).

My team now is as follows:

QB:
Tony Romo vs PHI
Mike Vick vs DAL

RB:
Lesean McCoy vs DAL
Rashard Mendenhall vs STL
CJ Spiller vs DEN
Donald Brown vs HOU
Shane Vereen (out)

WR
Marques Colston vs ATL
Dez Bryant vs PHI
Miles Austin vs PHI
Demaryius Thomas vs BUF
Greg Jennings (out)
Leonard Hankerson (out)

TE Jermichael Finley vs CHI
Vernon Davis vs SEA

K
Mason Crosby vs CHI

D
Houston Texans vs IND

The obvious must-starts are McCoy and Colston (wow, wouldn't have thought I'd say that back at the start of the year). I am thinking that I have to start CJ Spiller again this week against a weaker run defense than last. Mendenhall has a great matchup and has looked fairly good imo, but that line is a mess and he is not scoring well at all. Still, I'd like to fit him in the lineup somehow if I can.

That leaves Miles Austin and Dez Bryant who were shut down by Philly pretty good last time around (which is my fear again this time). How do I not start Demaryius Thomas after the target hogging performances of late? I started him last week and was rewarded - or not really since Vernon Davis outscored him anyway. Donald Brown is a fairly clear bench this week against Houston's #2 rushing defense (although Stew and Deangelo did ok last week against them) despite his breakout performance last week and fairly decent performances throughout the second half of the year.

Also, do I start Mike Vick (for whom I traded VJax straight up) or the red-hot Tony Romo? I just don't know.

Making even one wrong choice now (which I regularly do - choosing lineups is not a strength) against the high caliber of teams remaining could mean the end and a difference between $7,000 and $2,750 (or less). Luckily, I'll have until Saturday to decide.
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