$1250 FFPC Dynasty League - A Look Back
Jan 31, 2011 04:00 PM
Lets take a look back at my detailed response to a comment regarding my plans at TE for the FFPC $1250 Dynasty League along with my review in hindsight.
First, here was the comment:
“I noticed that you rated the teams with top TE's very high due to the 1.5 ppr. With that in mind, why did you choose to punt the position? For a team building for the future, wouldn't your first couple of picks be better served picking a celek and z. miller assuming the top 5 or so were gone by the time you made your first pick?”
My response (with my analysis in hindsight in brackets):
“Thanks DD! Great question (and one I ask myself from time to time).
First on me rating the best teams as those having the best TEs. Im not sure thats the case since I did rate the team with Dallas Clark (the top TE on my redraft board) at 10th best and the team with Finley AND Davis at only 8th best. I have Best of the Best squeaking in the playoffs with Scheffler as the TE1 (would rate even higher with a healthy Sidney Rice).
[Hindsight Review: I couldn’t have been more wrong on this one. The team with Dallas Clark (Invictus) ended up taking down 2nd place! So much for being able to predict draft picks (although to be fair, I did end up with the 1.1, 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 1.6 and 1.11 which is still pretty good).]
But, it is true, TEs at 1.5 PPR are very valuable (relative to TEs in standard PPR leagues) and you need a decent one to be a great team. As valuable as they are though, they are not untouchable in trade, so it is an option to worry about TE next year.
[Hindsight Review: Considering I made 5+ trades involving a TE including two involving Vernon Davis, I’d say I got this right.]
My goal in year 1 was and continues to be to pick up as much value as possible, regardless of position. The more value I can acquire in year 1 (which includes both players and picks), the more resources I will have to trade in Year 2 (to acquire, among other things, a good TE).
[Hindsight Review: I did a pretty good job of this in this league, drafting guys like Dwayne Bowe and Kenny Britt as value picks. I still maintain that CJ Spiller in the 5th round is going to end up as a really good value pick, but its not looking like it at the moment.]
Where TEs were being taken, the best value was elsewhere (with the exception of Jason Witten who was taken at 3.7, three picks after I took Rashard Mendenhall). Celek was taken at the 3.2, so to grab Celek, I would have had to forego Stewart (which under this strategy would not have made sense if you believe that Stewart is a first round talent) and to get Witten, I would have had to give up Mendenhall (ditto). Witten was a really good value, but maybe not so much for a team that will not compete in Year 1 as he has some mileage on him (and Mendenhall could be every bit as valuable as Witten would be for a win now team anyway).
I would anticipate that if I had to, I could acquire Witten (or a comparable TE if the Witten owner could not part with him) next year plus some for Mendenhall. Same goes for Celek and Stewart.
[Hindsight Review: Right on. Witten would have been a good pick in the 3rd, but Mendenhall and Stewart were better (for purposes of maximizing 2011 value). Celek in the 3rd would have been disastrous.]
Now Miller would have been the value pick at around 6.04, and with my pick at 6.01, Miller would have been a fine choice (perhaps the right choice even). But, if Im right about Bowe, he will cost more than Miller this time next year. Of course, there is a real possibility Miller could join the elite group of TEs in which case he could cost more than Bowe next year, but that only means I may have to focus on acquiring a different TE.
[Hindsight Review: Miller did join the elite, but in my opinion, Bowe still ended up being more valuable in reality and market perception.]
In the end, its all about value. I chose the players that I thought would represent the most value next year. Sure I could be wrong about Bowe being more valuable than Miller next year, but I could just as easily be wrong about Bowe being more valuable than any other player at WR, RB or QB. Even with 1.5PPR, it doesn’t make TEs unacquirable. It may cost more than I would like, but I will be able to acquire one nonetheless.
[Hindsight Review: I am happy with the price I ended up getting on my TE acquisitions (although I certainly would like to take back my initial trade of Mendenhall for Vernon Davis and a future 3rd rounder).]
One side note, I took Jared Cook later in the draft as a potential to fill the need at TE in Year 2. If he takes longer than that to develop, then I will have to buy a TE. If he does develop though (lets say into a Zach Miller type from this year), I may be able to forego shopping for a TE altogether.”
[Hindsight Review: I didn’t mention my drafting of Rob Gronkowski real late in the startup draft. With Jared Cook showing good potential late in the year, it still may end up being that Gronkowski and Cook were the only TEs I needed and that the acquisitions of Vernon Davis and Dustin Keller were unnecessary.]
[Overall Analysis: Although my position was (and still would be) that I could wait on drafting TEs in the startup draft given where they were being drafted, I think it is important to thereafter stockpile good ones whenever decent buying opportunities present themselves. They are VERY valuable in this format.]