Is David Wilson the next CJ Spiller?

Like Spiller, Wilson is an electric back that can explode around the corner with great acceleration. While not quite as fast as Spiller, there is little doubt in my mind that Wilson is just as big a threat to take any particular carry to the house.

While dynamic like Spiller, the report on Wilson from his college days was that he runs with more power. The limited footage of Wilson’s rookie season appears to be bearing this out. Wilson’s inside game and power may be better suited for taking on a greater feature back workload (and the all important goal line work) than Spiller’s.

Spiller’s advantage over Wilson at this point was/is Spiller’s ability as a receiver. If you recall, Spiller’s receiving skills were so good that Buffalo even dabbled using Spiller as a slot receiver (the reverse Percy Harvin). In PPR, Spiller’s receiving ability can potentially make all the difference in the world. While I don’t think Wilson will ever match Spiller in that area, I do believe he’ll receive enough screen passes and dump offs in the flat to be a fantastic PPR running back.

As for their situations following their rookie seasons, the two backs are very similar in that regard. Like Spiller, Wilson played as a backup his rookie year. In Wilson’s case, he barely saw the field for most of the year (due to one inopportune fumble landing him in the dog house). Both players made their marks as gifted kickoff returners. Both were seemingly underutilized but destined to do much more.

Like the Bills’ situation going into 2011, the Giants’ backfield has the looks of an RBBC going into 2013 as well. I’d say, however, that Wilson’s situation today is superior to that of Spiller’s in 2011 from an opportunity perspective and a standpoint of how that situation is likely to affect Wilson’s value following 2013. Bradshaw for one is the walking wounded, and even when healthy, Wilson may prove to be too good to keep in an RBBC. Bradshaw, while turning only 27, is not nearly the back that Fred Jackson was at age 30 (and is not even the back that Bradshaw himself was just a few years ago). Bradshaw does not present the obstacle to Wilson’s ascension to a starting role that Jackson did to Spiller’s. Advantage Wilson. Spiller ended up playing behind Fred Jackson in Year 2 until Jackson got hurt, after which Spiller strutted his stuff. I think Wilson can do the same if/when given the same opportunity. By the way, in case he crossed your mind, I don’t believe Andre Brown poses any real threat to Wilson in that regard.

From a performance standpoint, while both backs did little in their rookie seasons, Wilson showed more. Spiller believers were left to latch onto his performances in college to support their continued faith in him, while Wilson supporters at least have some NFL footage to go by as well. Unfortunately, this means that David Wilson may not come at the same discount that Spiller did back in 2011, but I don’t think Wilson is that much more hyped than Spiller was either. Wilson is still obtainable by trade (albeit at a price perceived by many to be highly inflated – personally, I think he is still way undervalued).

In any event, I am not here to tell you that Wilson is now or will be in a few years better than Spiller from a skills or performance perspective. I believe Spiller is still on the rise. Wilson will not be out-producing Spiller any time soon. I’m not about to be so bold to tell you that Wilson is more talented than Spiller. Spiller may be the most talented back in the NFL.

What I am saying though is that Wilson’s dynasty value has a very good chance of surpassing that of Spiller if not by the end of this year, then by the end of the next; and it is all made possible by the greatest equalizer in dynasty fantasy football, age.

At this point in Spiller’s career (i.e., after his rookie year), Spiller was 23. Wilson is only 21. That’s a 2 year advantage to Wilson, a significant advantage to say the least. Take Spiller today, a fantastic young RB (25 going on 26) with the promise of a great career ahead of him. His dynasty value is already a top 12 overall player as it should be. Now, imagine if Spiller were just 23 going on 24 (which is what Wilson would be after his third year). What would his value be then? Arguably, the #1 player overall!

Wilson has two years to equal what Spiller has done up to this point, which is to produce a fantasy season commensurate with an RB1. That certainly is no easy feat, but I do believe that there is a very good chance that he will. If he does reach that level of production, I believe he will be considered at that time the #1 player overall in dynasty, a designation carrying with it immense value.

How much is that “potential” worth to you today? For me, it is a top 7 or 8 RB value and a top 20 overall dynasty player. Sound crazy for a running back that has rushed for only 358 yards in his career? Maybe, but I think there is a very good chance that I am STILL undervaluing him at that ranking.

As I noted on the FFPC $1250 League Page, I made a big move last week to acquire Chris Johnson, the player I consider to be the #1 overall in a 2RB minimum format, especially in the FFPC that allows up to 4 RB in the starting lineup.

The cost? The 1.1, 1.3, Jared Cook and James Starks. As I might have mentioned previously, I love the 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3 this year, but I also really like Jared Cook in the FFPC format with 1.5 PPR for TEs. He finished 2010 very nicely, he will be the starter going into 2011 and he is a physical freak a la Vernon Davis (although not quite as fast, but then again, no TE is).

I am seeing lots of young TEs get way overrated these days in terms of their dynasty value. In your typical PPR format, outside of the elite few such as Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark that produce like top WRs, TEs really are not (or should not) be that big of a deal. There are plenty of good options to go around in order to fill 12 starting spots. Not so in the FFPC at 1.5PPR and with the ability to start up to 3. TEs there are worth their weight in gold, especially young ones that can produce at a high level for years and years to come.

Now where was I going with that? Oh yeah, Jared Cook is not an insignificant part of the trade. James Starks is a nice add on as well on just his potential to possibly become the lead back in Green Bay as soon as this year. I recently read on Rotoworld that the Packers look at him as being a poor man’s Adrian Peterson. Now, you don’t normally want to be labeled as a poor man’s anything, but a poor man’s “Adrian Peterson” is high praise for just about any running back out there.

While the feedback I am getting from the other owners has definitely been pro-Chris Johnson, I actually feel like the 1.1, 1.3, Jared Cook (in 1.5 PPR) and James Starks is a bit much to give up for any player in most other dynasty leagues. Then again, elite vet talent is naturally going to cost more in this league than in most others (something about the “$1250” that does it) and overpaying where necessary was always part of the plan (to recap, Year 1 = Accumulate resources, Year 2 = Overpay where necessary to acquire elite talent in order to assemble a monster team). While not yet quite at a monster level, this team is now finally beginning to approach it with Chris Johnson, and I still have the 1.5 and two 2011 1st rounders (neither my own) to play with. Stay tuned.

My team today (starters in caps):

ROMO, Cassel
CJ3, STEWART, Spiller, FJackson, 1.5 (Ryan Williams)
DEZ, BOWE, DESEAN, VJAX, Avery, Demaryius
V.DAVIS, Keller

As a side note, I also recently made a trade of my 2012 1st, 2nd and 3rd, plus the 2011 4.12, plus Ronnie Brown, for another teams 2012 1st and Caddy Williams (whom I will probably end up dropping). In making this trade, I am betting that the other 2012 1st rounder will be worth more than my own (duh) and in this case hopefully a top 3 pick.

The team continues to take shape and the excitement is building. I need to keep reminding myself that I should wait until closer to the draft in order to maximize the trade values of the draft picks, but I am finding it very hard to resist acquiring the vet pieces now in order to see what I have sooner rather than later. I now only have the 1.1, 1.3 and 1.5 picks left after another two recent trades.

Trade 1: Traded Danario Alexander for Fred Jackson. I probably would not make this trade in my typical lower stakes dynasty leagues since Danario looks like he could be special and Fred Jackson is merely a 1 or 2 year rental at best. Still, I have Spiller here and Fred Jackson could be a valuable piece to have in 2011 as a RB2 or RB3 if Spiller’s arrival is delayed. My RBs are now Stewart, FJax/Spiller and Starks. Not great, yet, but acceptable already “as is”. I plan to bring on more help in the coming months (Ingram, a vet or a combination of both).

Trade 2: Traded Rob Gronkowski and the 1.4 for Vernon Davis. He’s gone…again (Gronkowski) and he’s baaaack (Vernon). I’m really developing a thing in this format for TEs. My trio is now Vernon Davis, Dustin Keller and Jared Cook. Love it!

Here is the current roster (starters in CAPS):

QB TONY ROMO
RB JONATHAN STEWART, James Starks, CJ Spiller, FRED JACKSON
WR DEZ BRYANT, DESEAN JACKSON, VINCENT JACKSON, DWAYNE BOWE, Demaryius Thomas, Donnie Avery
TE: VERNON DAVIS, Dustin Keller, Jared Cook

Rookie Picks: 1.1, 1.3, 1.5 (plus two 2012 1st rounders including my own)

Another update on this league as I made two more major trades in the last two weeks.

This time, I shipped out MJD (the week just after his break through game), Tony Gonzalez, Braylon Edwards and Kareem Huggins for Jeremy Maclin (prior to the DJax injury), CJ Spiller and a 2011 1st (my 5th). The trade at the time looked awfully lopsided in the other team’s favor, but I liked it then and of course I am liking it more now in hindsight. I think both Maclin and Spiller can be special players. I wrote earlier about trading Maclin for Spiller straight up. I probably would take that back if I had it to do all over again, but either way, its very close. Spiller will come through. Read More...

Quick Background Recap: Per the numerous entries on this league, this team was built specifically to compete in 2011 and beyond with 6 1st round picks and a bunch of young players that I anticipated would increase in value. The goal in Year 1 was to accumulate as much value as possible up and down the roster in order to consolidate that value into stud players, even overpaying where necessary to do it.
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Unfortunately, I haven’t had much opportunity to write lately as things have gotten crazy busy at my day job (lately, a day and night job). That, in addition to managing as many leagues that I do (not to mention having a newborn), has made it difficult to say the least to find the time to write (notice the time stamp).

On a general note, I am having the fantasy season from hell this year (at least on the dynasty front) which honestly hasn’t exactly given me extra motivation to write. Some teams that were really good (or so I thought) are now languishing in the standings. It is still early in the season, so things can change, but I’m not feeling good at all about 2010 and am now having to make some tough strategy choices in those leagues.

The FFPC’s $750 Dynasty League is one of those leagues. I wouldn’t call my team there a dominant team by any means (yet), but I fully expected to at least make the playoffs and compete for a bye. Well, we’re almost a third of the way through the season, and I am tied for second...from the bottom! Worse yet, I don’t own my own 2011 1st rounder (although the picks I do have, if the season were to end today, would be the 1.1, 1.3, 1.4 and 1.9, so not really complaining about that).
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Just traded Maclin for CJ Spiller in a $500 dynasty league (WCOFF scoring/lineups). I really like both players, and Maclin has had a hot start, but couldn’t resist bringing on a player as dynamic as Spiller. Here’s a clip from last week’s game against the Patriots.

http://gamerewind.nfl.com/nflgr/game?id=54900&play=1253&icampaign=GR_Free_Clip_nfl

Buffalo is a mess right now, but I really think Spiller’s going to get it going THIS year, especially if and when Lynch is traded. He’s just too good to save for next year.

With Week 2 in the books, I thought it would be a good time to check in on the FFPC high stakes dynasty leagues.

The real action was in the $1250 where I participated in the first player for player trade in the league (take a guess on which player I acquired). I also splurged during the first BBID period of the season occurring just prior to the first Sunday of the season.

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Oh, the things one does to win (or to try to win) in a fantasy football dynasty league, particularly in a $750 dynasty league. Earlier this morning, in the FFPC’s $750 Dynasty League #2, I traded Hakeem Nicks, a player I think will be a super stud in the near future (but not necessarily in 2010), for a player that has been in my doghouse since the offseason leading up to the 2009 season, Marques Colston. Hakeem Nicks, the WR12 in my personal dynasty rankings that I put together in May to prepare for the $1250 FFPC Dynasty League, straight up for Marques Colston, the WR14 on those same rankings. I did write previously that his 4th round selection in the two most recent FFPC dynasty leagues was no fluke (knee) and that I would “be steering clear of Colston in all of my dynasty leagues”. So what gives? Read More...

A very interesting trade went down yesterday in one of my $100 leagues. Anytime a top 4 RB gets traded, it’s a story since it happens so infrequently. In this case, though, a rebuilding team traded FOR MJD from a top 4 contender. Seems a little backwards. Surprisingly, both teams may be the better for it. Read More...