Is David Wilson the next CJ Spiller?

Like Spiller, Wilson is an electric back that can explode around the corner with great acceleration. While not quite as fast as Spiller, there is little doubt in my mind that Wilson is just as big a threat to take any particular carry to the house.

While dynamic like Spiller, the report on Wilson from his college days was that he runs with more power. The limited footage of Wilson’s rookie season appears to be bearing this out. Wilson’s inside game and power may be better suited for taking on a greater feature back workload (and the all important goal line work) than Spiller’s.

Spiller’s advantage over Wilson at this point was/is Spiller’s ability as a receiver. If you recall, Spiller’s receiving skills were so good that Buffalo even dabbled using Spiller as a slot receiver (the reverse Percy Harvin). In PPR, Spiller’s receiving ability can potentially make all the difference in the world. While I don’t think Wilson will ever match Spiller in that area, I do believe he’ll receive enough screen passes and dump offs in the flat to be a fantastic PPR running back.

As for their situations following their rookie seasons, the two backs are very similar in that regard. Like Spiller, Wilson played as a backup his rookie year. In Wilson’s case, he barely saw the field for most of the year (due to one inopportune fumble landing him in the dog house). Both players made their marks as gifted kickoff returners. Both were seemingly underutilized but destined to do much more.

Like the Bills’ situation going into 2011, the Giants’ backfield has the looks of an RBBC going into 2013 as well. I’d say, however, that Wilson’s situation today is superior to that of Spiller’s in 2011 from an opportunity perspective and a standpoint of how that situation is likely to affect Wilson’s value following 2013. Bradshaw for one is the walking wounded, and even when healthy, Wilson may prove to be too good to keep in an RBBC. Bradshaw, while turning only 27, is not nearly the back that Fred Jackson was at age 30 (and is not even the back that Bradshaw himself was just a few years ago). Bradshaw does not present the obstacle to Wilson’s ascension to a starting role that Jackson did to Spiller’s. Advantage Wilson. Spiller ended up playing behind Fred Jackson in Year 2 until Jackson got hurt, after which Spiller strutted his stuff. I think Wilson can do the same if/when given the same opportunity. By the way, in case he crossed your mind, I don’t believe Andre Brown poses any real threat to Wilson in that regard.

From a performance standpoint, while both backs did little in their rookie seasons, Wilson showed more. Spiller believers were left to latch onto his performances in college to support their continued faith in him, while Wilson supporters at least have some NFL footage to go by as well. Unfortunately, this means that David Wilson may not come at the same discount that Spiller did back in 2011, but I don’t think Wilson is that much more hyped than Spiller was either. Wilson is still obtainable by trade (albeit at a price perceived by many to be highly inflated – personally, I think he is still way undervalued).

In any event, I am not here to tell you that Wilson is now or will be in a few years better than Spiller from a skills or performance perspective. I believe Spiller is still on the rise. Wilson will not be out-producing Spiller any time soon. I’m not about to be so bold to tell you that Wilson is more talented than Spiller. Spiller may be the most talented back in the NFL.

What I am saying though is that Wilson’s dynasty value has a very good chance of surpassing that of Spiller if not by the end of this year, then by the end of the next; and it is all made possible by the greatest equalizer in dynasty fantasy football, age.

At this point in Spiller’s career (i.e., after his rookie year), Spiller was 23. Wilson is only 21. That’s a 2 year advantage to Wilson, a significant advantage to say the least. Take Spiller today, a fantastic young RB (25 going on 26) with the promise of a great career ahead of him. His dynasty value is already a top 12 overall player as it should be. Now, imagine if Spiller were just 23 going on 24 (which is what Wilson would be after his third year). What would his value be then? Arguably, the #1 player overall!

Wilson has two years to equal what Spiller has done up to this point, which is to produce a fantasy season commensurate with an RB1. That certainly is no easy feat, but I do believe that there is a very good chance that he will. If he does reach that level of production, I believe he will be considered at that time the #1 player overall in dynasty, a designation carrying with it immense value.

How much is that “potential” worth to you today? For me, it is a top 7 or 8 RB value and a top 20 overall dynasty player. Sound crazy for a running back that has rushed for only 358 yards in his career? Maybe, but I think there is a very good chance that I am STILL undervaluing him at that ranking.

Just traded Maclin for CJ Spiller in a $500 dynasty league (WCOFF scoring/lineups). I really like both players, and Maclin has had a hot start, but couldn’t resist bringing on a player as dynamic as Spiller. Here’s a clip from last week’s game against the Patriots.

http://gamerewind.nfl.com/nflgr/game?id=54900&play=1253&icampaign=GR_Free_Clip_nfl

Buffalo is a mess right now, but I really think Spiller’s going to get it going THIS year, especially if and when Lynch is traded. He’s just too good to save for next year.

Demaryius Thomas made quite a splash last Sunday in his rookie debut. I thought Dez Bryant had a great first game, but Demaryius Thomas’ was even better. The 8/97/1 line says all you need to know, but here are a few other tidbits I learned from watching the game:

(1) Demaryius Thomas is fast, very fast. According to the announcers, Josh McDaniels indicated that he was the fastest player on the team (although a Denver Post article quoted McDaniels as saying that Thomas was “among” the fastest on the team). He supposedly timed an unofficial 4.38 40 during a work out before the foot injury (which if true, might make him the fastest Bronco after all), but I was skeptical about that time as I would be of any unofficial time.

(2) He is quick getting in and out of breaks, especially for a big man. Read More...

Here is the second installment of the fantasy football dynasty league market value series, this time on my favorite player, Larry Fitzgerald.

LARRY FITZGERALD (ARI)
Dynasty Talk Ranking: WR2 / #6 overall
Market Ranking: WR2 / #6 overall

Overview: Considered by most a year ago as the #1 WR in dynasty and #1 overall in many leagues, Fitzgerald rewarded owners in 2009 with another stellar year (284 points in PPR and the WR5). With Kurt Warner now retired, Fitzgerald’s value takes a small dip (wow, from WR1 to WR2). Read More...

Oh, the things one does to win (or to try to win) in a fantasy football dynasty league, particularly in a $750 dynasty league. Earlier this morning, in the FFPC’s $750 Dynasty League #2, I traded Hakeem Nicks, a player I think will be a super stud in the near future (but not necessarily in 2010), for a player that has been in my doghouse since the offseason leading up to the 2009 season, Marques Colston. Hakeem Nicks, the WR12 in my personal dynasty rankings that I put together in May to prepare for the $1250 FFPC Dynasty League, straight up for Marques Colston, the WR14 on those same rankings. I did write previously that his 4th round selection in the two most recent FFPC dynasty leagues was no fluke (knee) and that I would “be steering clear of Colston in all of my dynasty leagues”. So what gives? Read More...

$500 The Dynasty League (Early May) – 15th round

$750 FFPC Dynasty League #1 (Late May) – 9.09

$1250 FFPC Dynasty League (June) – 9.01

$250 Monster Dynasty League (Ongoing) – 6.11

$750 FFPC Dynasty League #2 (Ongoing) -- 6.05


I took him in the 15th of The Dynasty League in an attempt to lock up the Seattle backfield (excluding Lendale and Julius). I loved him SO much that I waited until the 15th round to take him and only after I had already drafted Leon Washington two rounds prior! There is no way I could I have anticipated this kind of rise in startup value when I took him there, and I would be hesitant in taking him now before the 8th round of a fantasy football dynasty startup draft.

A very interesting trade went down yesterday in one of my $100 leagues. Anytime a top 4 RB gets traded, it’s a story since it happens so infrequently. In this case, though, a rebuilding team traded FOR MJD from a top 4 contender. Seems a little backwards. Surprisingly, both teams may be the better for it. Read More...

One area that I spend a lot of time on is analyzing market value and studying startup drafts. Also, being in 20+ dynasty leagues makes it easier to stay on top of who is going for what. From time to time, I will be posting my analysis on the current market value of certain players (geared mainly towards PPR dynasty leagues). Up first is numero uno (for WRs at least), Andre Johnson. Read More...